* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BEATRIZ EP022011 06/21/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 66 69 69 70 67 59 49 37 25 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 64 66 69 69 70 67 59 49 37 25 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 63 66 68 70 71 69 61 49 37 28 21 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 13 16 17 4 2 10 7 12 13 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 1 -2 8 14 11 15 9 8 8 6 SHEAR DIR 101 87 97 123 124 199 80 245 251 228 229 220 199 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.4 26.9 24.2 22.0 21.6 21.4 21.3 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 161 160 157 147 132 104 81 77 74 74 66 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.8 -52.1 -51.5 -50.8 -51.7 -51.1 -51.4 -51.2 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 6 8 8 4 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 69 69 64 67 69 63 56 48 45 39 38 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 86 88 92 94 88 79 72 50 44 44 49 55 56 200 MB DIV 103 112 104 118 138 60 35 1 -1 -25 -21 -20 -15 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -4 -5 -1 -4 -11 -13 -15 -5 -3 8 5 LAND (KM) 84 58 45 36 43 94 218 247 285 421 512 625 783 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.3 20.0 20.5 20.7 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 103.3 103.7 104.1 104.8 105.4 106.5 107.8 109.6 111.6 113.4 114.8 116.6 118.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 7 6 7 9 9 7 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 46 43 41 38 25 16 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 6. 2. -4. -9. -13. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 9. 9. 10. 7. -1. -11. -23. -35. -45. -55. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022011 BEATRIZ 06/21/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 7.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022011 BEATRIZ 06/21/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##