* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BEATRIZ EP022011 06/21/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 83 85 86 82 74 62 49 37 25 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 80 83 85 86 82 74 62 49 37 25 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 80 84 85 85 78 66 53 41 31 24 19 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 16 19 14 12 3 6 12 9 11 11 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 4 7 13 17 11 15 6 9 6 5 SHEAR DIR 101 124 140 143 171 191 225 262 229 242 209 213 186 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.4 26.8 24.7 23.1 21.9 21.6 21.5 21.1 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 157 153 147 130 108 91 79 77 76 71 63 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -50.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 7 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 64 59 64 63 60 59 51 49 43 38 37 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 100 100 99 98 98 82 74 47 56 48 55 63 49 200 MB DIV 111 108 130 123 75 40 23 -14 -3 -14 -19 -15 -22 700-850 TADV -5 -3 4 2 -2 -8 -18 -22 -10 -10 4 3 10 LAND (KM) 38 27 28 58 89 229 265 249 298 429 573 693 794 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.6 20.7 20.8 20.8 20.7 20.7 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.7 105.3 105.9 106.5 107.9 109.3 110.5 111.8 113.5 115.7 117.4 118.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 9 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 42 40 19 22 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. -1. -7. -15. -22. -27. -33. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 11. 7. -1. -13. -26. -38. -50. -60. -71. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022011 BEATRIZ 06/21/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022011 BEATRIZ 06/21/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##