* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BEATRIZ EP022011 06/21/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 77 78 78 73 62 50 36 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 74 77 78 78 73 62 50 36 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 74 76 77 75 66 53 40 29 22 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 11 14 13 8 14 11 14 15 16 17 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 6 10 12 16 11 16 13 9 9 7 6 SHEAR DIR 104 145 173 207 235 194 221 219 226 213 206 183 186 SST (C) 29.4 29.1 28.6 27.7 26.7 24.8 22.9 21.3 20.9 20.8 20.8 20.4 19.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 155 150 140 129 109 89 73 69 68 68 64 61 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 4 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 60 62 56 56 57 54 47 44 38 40 39 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 97 93 91 94 82 76 53 36 41 43 46 48 39 200 MB DIV 82 75 74 47 25 40 12 -16 -28 -20 -15 -3 -13 700-850 TADV -5 1 0 -6 -5 -11 -12 -13 -8 -3 10 8 16 LAND (KM) 17 38 72 159 248 216 171 249 373 459 556 694 873 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.9 20.4 20.7 21.0 21.1 21.4 21.4 21.3 21.3 21.4 21.4 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 105.1 105.8 106.4 107.2 108.0 109.2 110.4 111.8 113.2 114.7 116.3 118.0 120.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 17 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 367 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -5. -13. -21. -28. -32. -37. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 8. 3. -7. -20. -34. -47. -59. -70. -81. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022011 BEATRIZ 06/21/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022011 BEATRIZ 06/21/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##