* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BEATRIZ EP022011 06/21/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 48 46 44 37 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 51 48 46 44 37 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 49 44 41 38 31 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 14 14 10 13 10 14 11 11 8 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 9 9 10 10 7 9 3 4 2 4 8 SHEAR DIR 122 141 164 192 187 162 170 169 182 189 204 177 207 SST (C) 28.7 27.9 26.8 25.7 24.7 23.4 22.6 22.2 22.0 21.5 20.7 20.0 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 143 131 119 108 95 87 82 80 75 67 60 59 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 65 61 58 56 59 52 46 45 41 39 34 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 70 78 72 75 81 49 43 55 60 63 46 45 200 MB DIV 90 96 66 38 45 43 9 -6 -24 -27 -9 -10 4 700-850 TADV 2 2 -3 1 0 4 0 2 0 1 0 3 13 LAND (KM) 137 188 246 316 339 304 385 479 571 634 741 874 898 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.3 19.6 19.8 19.9 20.2 20.1 20.3 20.3 20.6 20.8 21.2 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 106.2 107.1 107.9 108.7 109.4 110.5 112.2 113.7 115.0 116.5 118.1 119.9 121.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 29 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 340 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -5. -10. -15. -18. -21. -26. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -11. -18. -27. -37. -46. -54. -61. -67. -73. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022011 BEATRIZ 06/21/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022011 BEATRIZ 06/21/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##