* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952011 06/27/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 34 42 49 55 62 67 70 71 69 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 34 42 37 30 28 27 27 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 26 25 26 27 27 27 32 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 15 15 8 6 4 4 4 14 9 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 1 0 -2 -2 0 2 0 -2 2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 293 277 275 273 256 292 352 29 81 111 114 78 78 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.0 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 147 148 146 141 139 144 149 154 159 151 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 133 135 136 134 128 126 131 134 140 145 138 109 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 79 80 77 75 77 74 77 78 80 80 78 80 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 12 14 15 14 13 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 37 44 53 67 89 92 106 126 152 148 134 103 200 MB DIV 63 76 48 49 92 73 54 78 79 65 61 50 0 700-850 TADV 0 1 -6 -6 4 -5 -1 -4 0 6 3 -2 -8 LAND (KM) 48 149 246 290 237 89 -72 -220 -363 -248 -73 63 234 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.0 21.2 21.3 21.3 21.2 21.2 21.1 21.0 21.0 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 91.0 91.9 92.8 93.8 94.7 96.4 98.1 99.8 101.3 102.8 104.5 106.1 107.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 21 32 38 44 39 25 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 442 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 22. 29. 35. 42. 47. 50. 51. 49. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952011 INVEST 06/27/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952011 INVEST 06/27/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952011 INVEST 06/27/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)