* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952011 06/28/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 39 43 50 55 61 66 68 66 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 39 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 15 12 13 8 3 5 4 2 5 5 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -3 -5 0 0 -2 3 -2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 295 289 282 263 245 298 273 338 302 312 50 327 337 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 147 147 145 145 140 142 144 147 147 146 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 135 135 133 131 132 127 127 127 130 128 125 128 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.8 -52.2 -51.6 -52.3 -51.4 -52.4 -51.2 -52.0 -51.2 -52.1 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 6 8 9 6 10 8 10 8 10 6 8 700-500 MB RH 80 78 80 80 82 82 79 80 81 83 85 87 89 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 13 14 14 13 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 39 48 66 79 88 91 106 119 129 116 96 61 200 MB DIV 85 50 60 78 99 51 63 70 93 62 73 45 65 700-850 TADV 6 -3 1 10 4 -2 0 -2 -5 5 0 5 0 LAND (KM) 63 127 181 213 207 97 -52 -178 -279 -359 -325 -317 -375 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 7 6 6 8 8 6 4 4 3 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 7 24 29 32 39 41 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 23. 30. 35. 41. 46. 48. 46. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952011 INVEST 06/28/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952011 INVEST 06/28/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952011 INVEST 06/28/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)