* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952011 06/28/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 45 51 59 64 69 69 68 65 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 36 30 28 27 27 30 29 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 31 28 27 27 27 33 38 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 15 15 14 4 8 5 5 4 9 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -4 -4 -1 -3 -1 4 5 3 6 1 SHEAR DIR 284 274 261 275 295 311 2 82 131 67 125 58 60 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.3 29.6 28.4 25.4 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 146 146 145 142 145 149 156 162 142 108 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 136 134 133 132 129 132 136 144 149 130 99 82 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.7 -51.7 -52.5 -51.2 -52.4 -51.2 -51.8 -50.8 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 6 10 8 10 6 7 2 3 0 700-500 MB RH 81 81 84 83 83 81 78 79 80 79 76 75 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 11 11 12 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 55 68 82 78 81 99 119 133 133 110 88 54 200 MB DIV 34 66 69 55 67 75 86 95 48 40 28 15 -4 700-850 TADV 0 5 0 -6 -4 1 -8 -3 10 3 7 -6 -2 LAND (KM) 134 187 209 164 101 -40 -190 -338 -240 -63 99 274 230 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.6 20.7 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.7 20.7 20.7 20.8 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 92.7 93.5 94.3 95.1 95.9 97.6 99.3 101.0 102.8 104.7 106.6 108.6 110.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 25 29 35 43 41 30 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 26. 34. 39. 44. 44. 43. 40. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952011 INVEST 06/28/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952011 INVEST 06/28/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952011 INVEST 06/28/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)