* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952011 06/28/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 43 47 51 56 62 67 69 68 65 61 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 43 47 51 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 34 38 41 44 50 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 11 13 12 8 7 9 7 7 13 14 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 2 0 -4 -2 0 0 -3 4 0 5 3 2 SHEAR DIR 286 280 284 284 289 304 355 347 5 341 337 329 317 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 144 142 139 137 140 144 145 144 142 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 130 129 128 126 124 122 123 127 127 127 124 121 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 7 9 9 10 9 8 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 78 81 78 77 80 78 83 84 85 86 87 85 81 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 13 12 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 59 59 55 57 72 86 112 104 101 73 44 12 200 MB DIV 64 77 60 59 28 50 65 80 56 73 26 40 20 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -6 -4 -13 -4 -6 -3 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 268 309 281 227 168 42 -58 -141 -217 -268 -229 -191 -185 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 1 2 1 0 HEAT CONTENT 36 39 40 42 41 21 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 21. 26. 32. 38. 39. 38. 35. 31. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952011 INVEST 06/28/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952011 INVEST 06/28/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952011 INVEST 06/28/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)