* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARLENE AL012011 06/29/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 49 52 58 60 65 67 68 64 63 58 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 49 52 58 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 44 47 51 57 42 31 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 9 6 4 12 9 14 11 16 21 16 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 -2 1 1 -2 6 0 6 -3 4 -2 SHEAR DIR 284 290 290 316 277 321 332 10 343 329 345 344 327 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 143 142 140 137 136 140 144 146 146 144 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 130 128 126 124 121 120 124 128 126 127 125 123 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -51.4 -52.2 -50.9 -51.9 -51.0 -52.1 -51.2 -52.5 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 9 9 8 11 8 10 6 8 6 10 700-500 MB RH 80 76 75 78 78 76 80 81 87 87 87 84 81 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 15 14 13 12 9 8 6 7 5 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 58 59 58 66 68 82 102 118 113 122 89 65 24 200 MB DIV 86 66 51 52 60 35 72 89 65 69 72 55 51 700-850 TADV -2 0 -6 -1 -6 -7 -3 -15 -4 -11 -2 -5 0 LAND (KM) 310 273 217 155 95 19 -52 -161 -273 -321 -323 -296 -267 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.5 21.7 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.5 21.1 20.7 20.6 20.6 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 93.8 94.5 95.1 95.7 96.3 97.2 98.3 99.3 100.3 100.9 100.6 100.3 100.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 39 40 42 40 37 10 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 20. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. -9. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 17. 23. 25. 30. 32. 33. 29. 28. 23. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012011 ARLENE 06/29/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012011 ARLENE 06/29/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012011 ARLENE 06/29/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)