* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARLENE AL012011 06/29/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 49 53 57 64 69 70 70 68 65 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 46 49 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 43 46 44 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 6 7 8 8 3 2 4 9 10 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 6 4 5 3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 277 285 284 283 298 336 13 301 299 308 326 319 308 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 140 139 136 136 139 142 145 144 145 141 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 128 125 122 120 121 123 125 127 123 126 121 121 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -51.4 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -52.5 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 9 10 9 9 7 7 7 9 9 700-500 MB RH 76 75 76 78 76 79 79 83 83 83 83 80 78 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 14 14 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 54 61 67 71 92 120 117 122 110 90 41 16 200 MB DIV 74 60 55 74 69 73 85 70 70 53 56 22 41 700-850 TADV 0 -8 -2 -2 -18 -2 -5 3 4 5 2 3 3 LAND (KM) 268 209 154 103 63 -30 -156 -251 -327 -361 -324 -280 -266 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 21.9 22.1 22.1 22.1 21.9 21.7 21.5 21.3 21.2 21.4 21.6 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 94.6 95.2 95.8 96.4 96.9 98.1 99.3 100.2 100.9 101.4 100.9 100.5 100.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 6 5 4 3 0 3 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 40 42 40 37 29 25 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 19. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 18. 22. 29. 34. 35. 35. 33. 30. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012011 ARLENE 06/29/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012011 ARLENE 06/29/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012011 ARLENE 06/29/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)