* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARLENE AL012011 06/29/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 54 58 63 70 75 77 76 73 70 70 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 54 47 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 47 52 47 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 5 3 6 11 5 4 5 11 16 17 18 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 1 0 2 -4 2 5 6 1 4 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 310 352 354 352 338 9 339 327 333 322 320 293 N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 140 138 139 140 145 146 144 145 145 144 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 127 124 123 123 125 129 127 123 125 125 125 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -50.5 -51.7 -50.8 -52.2 -51.4 -52.7 -52.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 11 9 8 10 8 9 5 7 6 9 N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 80 79 76 76 81 86 84 88 88 86 80 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 15 15 14 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 68 79 84 89 106 122 108 108 83 59 17 N/A 200 MB DIV 51 62 77 74 76 98 82 111 70 75 16 45 N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -7 -15 -9 -6 -2 5 6 3 4 3 N/A LAND (KM) 188 132 65 23 -20 -129 -253 -325 -315 -325 -331 -316 N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.3 21.2 20.9 20.7 20.6 20.7 20.8 21.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.3 96.0 96.6 97.1 97.6 98.8 100.0 100.8 100.8 100.8 100.9 100.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 6 5 2 0 1 1 1 N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 40 29 2 29 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 16. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 23. 30. 35. 37. 36. 33. 30. 30. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012011 ARLENE 06/29/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 39% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012011 ARLENE 06/29/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012011 ARLENE 06/29/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)