* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST AL802011 06/29/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 19 23 30 36 42 51 51 56 49 48 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 8 6 5 6 4 1 -1 0 -5 -1 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 260 269 261 273 278 294 291 282 270 262 252 246 244 SST (C) 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.7 27.0 27.1 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 118 118 115 114 114 115 117 118 119 122 123 121 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 115 112 111 111 111 110 110 110 111 110 108 107 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 48 50 48 45 41 38 32 29 24 23 22 22 21 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 16 9 2 0 -6 -31 -32 -31 -18 -18 -19 -33 200 MB DIV 0 4 6 7 -4 -16 10 -14 7 -1 8 10 8 700-850 TADV -6 -6 0 4 12 18 24 28 19 15 3 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 1455 1589 1725 1861 1998 1880 1780 1719 1687 1694 1736 1777 1824 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.1 19.7 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 30.9 32.2 33.5 34.8 36.1 38.6 40.7 42.5 43.9 44.9 45.6 46.0 46.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 13 13 13 13 12 10 8 7 6 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 0 0 0 1 5 12 16 20 16 15 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 19. 23. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -7. -17. -26. -36. -43. -46. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -13. -22. -29. -37. -41. -43. -45. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL802011 TEST 06/29/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL802011 TEST 06/29/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)