* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST AL812011 06/29/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 21 21 26 32 39 45 54 53 58 46 47 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 4 4 4 1 1 0 2 -3 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 257 269 269 278 288 298 288 283 272 270 273 278 284 SST (C) 26.4 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.3 26.6 27.1 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 118 117 116 116 116 117 120 125 130 132 132 131 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 114 113 113 112 113 114 118 121 121 119 116 113 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 49 50 51 47 45 40 33 32 27 27 28 28 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 30 19 8 4 -2 -25 -22 -35 -30 -31 -24 -33 200 MB DIV 8 9 4 -3 -15 -22 10 3 29 8 1 -13 11 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -1 4 9 14 20 26 21 16 8 4 -2 LAND (KM) 1744 1880 1902 1875 1790 1660 1565 1500 1481 1505 1553 1554 1532 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.5 15.2 15.9 16.6 17.2 18.0 18.8 19.3 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 33.6 34.9 36.2 37.5 38.8 41.2 43.5 45.5 47.0 48.2 49.0 49.5 50.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 7 6 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 1 1 2 6 14 23 36 36 33 33 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 20. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -10. -21. -31. -42. -47. -50. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -14. -23. -30. -37. -41. -41. -42. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL812011 TEST 06/29/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL812011 TEST 06/29/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)