* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARLENE AL012011 06/30/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 57 61 63 67 67 68 68 68 65 67 66 V (KT) LAND 50 54 57 61 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 57 61 46 33 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 16 12 13 9 12 16 22 17 13 7 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 1 0 -4 4 4 3 0 0 1 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 323 325 337 343 350 5 326 346 353 347 342 15 N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.7 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 140 139 140 146 154 157 159 160 162 163 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 123 124 125 126 132 140 140 142 142 145 147 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -50.7 -52.0 -51.1 -51.8 -51.3 -52.9 -52.4 -53.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 10 11 8 8 5 7 6 9 7 N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 79 78 80 82 84 86 85 84 82 79 75 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 12 10 8 5 6 6 7 5 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 66 77 86 96 111 100 101 83 68 53 35 N/A 200 MB DIV 43 38 59 81 99 71 79 40 64 5 39 28 N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -15 -16 -4 -5 -10 0 -8 -7 -5 -4 0 N/A LAND (KM) 146 100 56 -2 -75 -235 -235 -144 -98 -73 -46 -14 N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.3 21.1 20.6 19.9 19.3 18.8 18.4 18.1 17.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.8 96.3 96.7 97.4 98.1 99.6 101.0 102.0 101.6 101.4 101.4 101.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 7 7 7 7 3 3 2 2 3 N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 38 23 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -9. -9. -8. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 13. 17. 17. 18. 18. 18. 15. 17. 16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012011 ARLENE 06/30/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012011 ARLENE 06/30/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012011 ARLENE 06/30/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)