* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARLENE AL012011 06/30/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 65 68 70 70 69 67 64 62 59 58 V (KT) LAND 55 47 40 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 49 42 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 15 13 10 11 4 9 19 18 17 15 6 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 0 -1 0 10 11 3 4 4 0 2 N/A SHEAR DIR 316 334 348 355 9 271 282 320 305 300 290 287 N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 136 140 142 146 151 152 150 150 152 154 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 122 121 125 127 131 134 133 130 129 132 135 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -51.4 -50.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 11 9 9 7 7 7 8 7 7 N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 78 79 77 79 82 82 82 81 79 79 77 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 14 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 82 85 99 118 106 115 99 83 57 47 27 N/A 200 MB DIV 39 59 95 86 65 56 63 25 36 31 30 18 N/A 700-850 TADV -15 -5 -3 -5 -14 13 11 0 -4 2 -1 1 N/A LAND (KM) 20 -12 -38 -112 -187 -309 -291 -237 -259 -274 -237 -213 N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.7 21.7 21.4 21.1 20.7 20.6 20.4 20.5 20.5 20.4 20.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.0 97.6 98.1 98.8 99.4 100.5 101.6 102.4 102.2 102.0 102.4 102.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 6 5 4 1 1 0 1 2 N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 0 26 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 13. 15. 15. 14. 12. 9. 7. 4. 3. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012011 ARLENE 06/30/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012011 ARLENE 06/30/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012011 ARLENE 06/30/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)