* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARLENE AL012011 06/30/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 62 66 70 75 77 77 76 74 73 72 71 V (KT) LAND 55 46 38 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 46 37 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 10 6 6 3 6 16 17 18 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -2 0 3 8 8 3 4 1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 344 3 349 10 346 352 330 316 312 280 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 141 142 145 148 146 145 146 147 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 123 126 127 129 130 127 125 126 127 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.5 -50.9 -51.5 -52.0 -51.2 -52.4 -51.5 -52.8 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 11 10 8 9 5 9 6 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 80 80 79 84 85 84 83 81 79 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 87 95 111 119 102 106 83 65 42 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 92 91 56 69 71 68 51 24 53 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -10 -11 -5 6 2 1 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -14 -63 -121 -180 -240 -299 -285 -290 -279 -285 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.4 21.2 21.0 20.8 20.4 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.5 98.1 98.7 99.3 99.8 100.7 100.6 100.5 100.7 100.6 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 2 1 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 25 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 8. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 20. 22. 22. 21. 19. 18. 17. 16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012011 ARLENE 06/30/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012011 ARLENE 06/30/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012011 ARLENE 06/30/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)