* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARLENE AL012011 06/30/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 48 51 53 56 56 56 55 54 55 56 56 V (KT) LAND 45 37 33 30 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 37 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 11 9 8 17 18 22 17 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 4 5 12 8 7 3 6 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 356 330 350 339 358 287 304 302 288 279 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 142 145 147 150 148 145 148 147 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 125 128 130 131 131 127 124 128 126 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -52.7 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 10 8 9 6 7 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 80 80 82 81 84 84 79 77 73 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 10 9 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 86 107 126 119 111 96 73 50 35 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 79 80 87 87 97 83 46 25 13 8 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -1 -13 -9 -9 13 5 1 4 5 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -54 -120 -192 -258 -325 -305 -300 -312 -297 -297 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.5 21.4 21.2 21.1 21.0 20.8 20.7 20.8 20.7 20.7 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.1 98.8 99.5 100.2 100.8 101.9 101.8 101.7 101.9 101.9 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 2 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 3. 6. 8. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 10. 11. 11. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012011 ARLENE 06/30/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012011 ARLENE 06/30/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012011 ARLENE 06/30/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)