* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARLENE AL012011 07/01/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 27 27 28 32 37 42 44 49 54 59 61 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 17 18 16 15 6 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 5 4 7 0 1 1 5 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 346 359 360 360 3 349 352 312 307 314 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 145 148 151 153 154 153 154 155 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 128 130 133 136 135 136 134 135 137 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.5 -52.1 -51.9 -51.3 -52.2 -51.5 -52.7 -52.1 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 9 8 5 8 6 9 6 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 81 83 84 85 85 85 83 80 77 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 8 6 5 6 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 101 113 105 102 110 92 66 43 22 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 63 79 93 77 48 46 19 53 24 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -9 -6 -4 -6 -12 -8 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -128 -190 -252 -311 -265 -185 -176 -176 -160 -161 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 20.9 20.6 20.4 20.1 19.6 19.4 19.2 19.1 18.9 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.7 99.3 99.8 100.3 100.8 101.5 101.2 100.9 101.0 100.7 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 2 2 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -7. -11. -14. -16. -16. -15. -14. -12. -8. -4. -1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -3. -2. 2. 7. 12. 14. 19. 24. 29. 31. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012011 ARLENE 07/01/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012011 ARLENE 07/01/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012011 ARLENE 07/01/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)