* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932011 07/06/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 34 42 50 54 58 55 51 45 42 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 34 42 50 54 58 55 51 45 42 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 26 29 32 35 38 38 36 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 9 12 11 14 12 11 10 10 10 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -2 -1 -2 0 0 2 2 2 4 2 SHEAR DIR 102 103 118 127 130 121 95 107 86 80 100 120 144 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.2 27.7 25.9 24.9 24.3 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 156 157 157 157 156 157 141 123 112 106 94 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -52.2 -53.1 -52.1 -52.8 -51.8 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 8 7 10 7 6 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 81 81 81 81 81 77 77 77 70 69 63 60 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 7 9 8 7 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 9 16 18 16 14 20 21 31 35 33 32 24 31 200 MB DIV 34 56 62 57 94 80 62 38 37 24 15 4 -10 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 -1 0 -2 -1 -1 2 5 LAND (KM) 288 231 196 177 170 191 209 299 394 565 613 730 863 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.5 16.2 16.7 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 94.8 95.8 96.8 97.9 98.9 101.2 103.4 105.8 108.0 110.2 112.5 114.8 117.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 36 38 35 26 52 26 40 35 12 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 15. 23. 30. 34. 35. 36. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 4. 3. 2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 22. 30. 34. 38. 35. 31. 25. 22. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932011 INVEST 07/06/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932011 INVEST 07/06/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##