* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932011 07/06/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 26 34 40 48 50 50 45 40 34 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 26 34 40 48 50 50 45 40 34 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 27 30 33 35 34 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 10 10 11 9 10 5 4 6 5 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 -1 -3 -1 0 5 2 3 7 4 SHEAR DIR 106 108 124 137 124 118 113 118 89 78 90 323 350 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.0 26.9 25.0 24.1 23.2 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 157 158 158 157 159 155 133 113 104 95 81 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 7 8 7 8 8 7 5 3 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 81 81 80 76 75 73 70 69 65 60 54 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 9 8 10 9 9 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 16 22 23 18 21 12 28 31 39 38 21 27 22 200 MB DIV 51 50 50 76 87 51 48 42 29 17 16 -14 -13 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 0 -1 0 -3 -1 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 242 187 156 137 140 158 185 272 414 530 582 724 816 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.3 16.1 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.6 97.6 98.6 99.6 101.8 104.1 106.4 108.6 110.9 113.2 115.6 117.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 39 35 21 53 46 37 39 30 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 15. 23. 30. 33. 34. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 4. 3. 3. 0. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 14. 20. 28. 30. 30. 25. 20. 14. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932011 INVEST 07/06/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932011 INVEST 07/06/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##