* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932011 07/06/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 47 52 53 49 42 34 26 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 47 52 53 49 42 34 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 30 31 34 37 40 41 40 36 30 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 9 9 10 12 6 7 4 6 1 2 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -4 -1 0 3 8 4 13 10 6 SHEAR DIR 83 82 123 118 124 93 114 112 118 91 31 119 100 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 27.7 25.9 24.6 23.4 21.5 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 155 156 155 154 156 142 123 110 98 78 70 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -52.2 -52.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 7 7 6 9 6 6 4 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 82 81 81 79 80 73 74 70 66 59 57 49 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 10 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 5 10 9 12 9 10 22 30 32 33 20 18 6 200 MB DIV 47 59 69 88 71 80 65 64 36 8 -32 -30 -35 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 1 -2 0 -1 -1 3 8 LAND (KM) 308 276 248 253 258 271 337 430 613 628 770 891 1075 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.6 16.2 16.9 17.4 18.1 18.7 19.5 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 96.9 97.9 98.8 99.9 100.9 103.3 105.7 108.1 110.6 113.2 115.9 118.8 121.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 30 12 37 39 14 37 36 14 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 438 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 28. 28. 27. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 4. 0. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 22. 27. 28. 24. 17. 9. 1. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932011 INVEST 07/06/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932011 INVEST 07/06/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##