* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932011 07/06/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 37 44 54 59 58 52 46 40 33 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 37 44 54 59 58 52 46 40 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 35 39 41 43 42 39 36 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 16 12 16 14 11 11 12 23 14 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 -1 -2 0 0 4 7 -1 1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 78 86 81 87 83 76 78 86 73 82 99 100 128 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.5 27.7 27.1 26.1 24.9 24.2 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 152 152 153 149 139 133 124 111 104 93 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 0 700-500 MB RH 82 83 83 82 80 77 72 70 69 67 61 58 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 10 13 13 13 10 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 4 11 10 7 0 14 20 26 23 18 9 11 -4 200 MB DIV 69 93 101 89 90 80 56 46 29 0 -7 -3 -30 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -2 0 -2 1 LAND (KM) 337 336 359 382 405 399 437 482 512 585 579 609 701 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 10 6 5 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 10 22 34 19 20 28 24 7 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 28. 29. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 19. 29. 34. 33. 27. 21. 15. 8. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932011 INVEST 07/06/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932011 INVEST 07/06/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##