* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962011 07/07/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 27 32 33 35 37 39 42 43 43 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 27 32 33 35 37 31 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 27 26 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 23 17 19 21 19 20 20 14 16 11 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 1 0 0 -1 -1 -3 0 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 244 240 238 208 221 179 187 166 184 151 176 130 131 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 152 153 155 159 160 162 159 157 152 146 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 132 132 133 134 135 134 134 131 128 124 119 117 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 10 9 11 10 12 10 12 10 700-500 MB RH 76 76 72 70 65 65 62 58 55 55 46 56 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 5 5 4 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -11 1 -3 -33 -36 -29 -15 -63 -77 -121 -91 -118 200 MB DIV 39 30 36 36 24 20 20 -4 7 15 2 3 -2 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 0 1 2 -2 0 -1 0 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 171 237 267 268 285 243 156 97 16 -29 -67 -101 -80 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 24.9 25.4 25.9 26.4 27.6 28.6 29.6 30.3 30.9 31.2 31.3 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 83.4 84.0 84.5 84.9 85.3 86.1 86.4 86.6 87.1 87.8 88.4 89.3 90.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 6 6 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 66 55 37 46 50 39 44 37 12 16 9 5 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 3. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 7. 12. 13. 15. 17. 19. 22. 23. 23. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962011 INVEST 07/07/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962011 INVEST 07/07/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962011 INVEST 07/07/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)