* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962011 07/07/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 38 42 44 47 49 51 51 51 49 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 38 42 44 36 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 35 38 33 29 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 17 20 23 18 23 17 18 6 10 3 12 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 -2 -6 0 -2 0 0 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 247 234 208 219 202 173 165 167 145 161 134 126 100 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.7 28.5 27.1 26.3 25.8 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 154 157 159 164 166 162 142 122 113 107 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 134 134 136 136 140 138 134 117 100 92 87 89 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.0 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 8 10 8 12 9 15 8 16 7 700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 66 66 65 61 56 51 49 51 53 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 5 4 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 0 -4 -35 -55 -18 -20 -34 -82 -89 -99 -75 -64 200 MB DIV 29 37 38 24 9 21 3 13 7 23 -17 19 -1 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 2 4 0 0 0 1 1 0 3 0 LAND (KM) 229 230 226 250 266 117 44 -52 -157 -251 -281 -312 -288 LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.6 26.2 26.8 27.3 28.7 29.8 30.9 31.9 32.8 33.2 33.5 33.3 LONG(DEG W) 83.7 84.2 84.6 85.1 85.5 85.8 85.9 86.0 86.6 87.0 87.5 87.7 88.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 45 35 40 45 40 37 19 27 13 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 17. 19. 22. 24. 26. 26. 26. 24. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962011 INVEST 07/07/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962011 INVEST 07/07/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962011 INVEST 07/07/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)