* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032011 07/07/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 54 59 57 52 45 37 32 25 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 54 59 57 52 45 37 32 25 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 38 40 45 49 50 46 40 34 28 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 15 14 12 9 9 8 7 4 5 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -4 -2 0 0 -1 0 4 4 4 -2 SHEAR DIR 105 94 93 95 95 89 84 96 86 131 115 71 117 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.2 26.3 24.5 23.7 22.6 21.7 20.8 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 154 156 156 146 127 108 99 88 78 69 68 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -53.0 -51.9 -52.3 -51.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 8 7 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 82 79 77 76 76 72 70 62 61 57 55 51 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 9 8 10 11 10 9 8 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 7 12 21 31 29 34 41 40 33 27 27 10 3 200 MB DIV 58 66 78 83 63 46 27 27 -6 -42 -35 -30 -43 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -3 0 0 0 0 1 3 7 LAND (KM) 315 303 285 294 323 382 505 526 565 640 732 868 1015 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.4 19.0 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 101.5 102.5 103.4 104.5 105.5 107.5 109.5 111.6 113.5 115.4 117.3 119.3 121.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 34 38 40 37 22 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 447 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 17. 19. 18. 17. 14. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 24. 29. 27. 22. 15. 7. 2. -5. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032011 THREE 07/07/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032011 THREE 07/07/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##