* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932011 07/07/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 39 44 48 56 60 57 51 43 35 30 23 V (KT) LAND 30 35 39 44 48 56 60 57 51 43 35 30 23 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 45 48 47 44 39 34 28 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 16 15 13 9 11 12 9 8 8 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -5 -2 0 0 -1 -1 0 2 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 106 96 93 94 92 95 85 86 91 110 105 93 113 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.8 27.8 26.3 25.0 24.3 23.0 21.9 21.1 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 154 155 153 142 127 113 106 92 81 72 70 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.2 -52.7 -53.0 -51.9 -52.3 -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 77 76 74 74 71 69 62 62 59 56 52 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 9 8 10 11 10 9 8 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 8 12 22 30 29 32 40 39 36 29 32 19 11 200 MB DIV 55 66 72 88 67 41 26 25 -6 -39 -32 -26 -41 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 LAND (KM) 356 357 330 354 391 459 589 611 659 748 832 982 1136 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.8 18.3 19.0 19.4 19.7 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 102.2 103.2 104.1 105.1 106.1 108.1 110.1 112.2 114.0 116.0 117.9 120.1 122.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 9 10 10 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 36 39 39 35 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 335 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 17. 19. 19. 17. 15. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 18. 26. 30. 27. 21. 13. 5. 0. -7. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932011 INVEST 07/07/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932011 INVEST 07/07/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##