* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962011 07/07/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 36 39 42 45 47 47 48 47 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 36 39 37 31 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 31 33 35 38 30 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 21 17 13 20 14 17 9 11 4 8 5 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 2 -4 -2 -1 0 -3 -2 0 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 238 220 241 194 163 179 153 178 128 174 120 105 82 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.0 28.5 28.4 28.9 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 150 153 155 161 164 162 149 140 139 147 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 128 129 132 133 137 137 134 121 112 112 121 127 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 9 11 10 12 10 13 10 13 700-500 MB RH 71 68 64 65 64 61 56 52 48 48 56 55 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 4 4 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -4 -32 -46 -27 -25 -10 -47 -67 -108 -76 -94 -52 200 MB DIV 39 49 24 1 20 8 4 7 12 6 5 3 1 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 1 0 2 -2 2 -1 3 0 2 LAND (KM) 277 338 354 348 307 180 62 -4 -112 -158 -167 -93 -77 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.3 25.8 26.4 27.0 28.2 29.5 30.5 31.5 31.9 32.0 31.5 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 85.3 85.6 85.8 86.0 86.1 86.1 86.0 86.2 86.5 86.7 87.1 87.7 88.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 2 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 30 40 59 52 39 42 34 5 21 12 11 15 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 14. 17. 20. 22. 22. 23. 22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962011 INVEST 07/07/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962011 INVEST 07/07/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962011 INVEST 07/07/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)