* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032011 07/07/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 39 44 48 57 59 57 51 42 35 29 24 V (KT) LAND 30 35 39 44 48 57 59 57 51 42 35 29 24 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 45 47 45 41 35 30 26 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 15 11 9 10 6 11 6 8 5 4 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 -1 1 1 2 3 0 SHEAR DIR 93 88 95 94 91 92 104 94 91 95 124 84 223 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.1 28.6 27.0 24.9 23.5 23.3 22.7 22.0 21.2 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 157 156 151 133 112 98 95 87 80 72 64 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -51.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 77 76 76 71 71 70 64 60 59 57 52 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 11 10 10 10 8 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 14 23 33 32 30 45 41 41 43 31 22 7 8 200 MB DIV 69 77 73 48 36 30 13 6 -33 -28 -17 -37 -30 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 0 0 1 2 4 LAND (KM) 298 283 290 321 340 420 455 450 621 710 683 716 749 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.7 18.8 19.3 19.2 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 102.6 103.7 104.8 105.9 106.9 108.6 110.0 112.0 114.5 116.0 116.6 117.7 118.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 11 9 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 37 39 40 35 27 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 429 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 12. 15. 15. 15. 14. 11. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -1. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 18. 27. 29. 27. 21. 12. 5. -1. -6. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032011 THREE 07/07/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032011 THREE 07/07/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##