* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962011 07/08/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 34 37 40 42 41 39 33 32 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 29 28 27 27 27 28 22 21 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 26 27 27 27 27 31 31 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 20 15 17 16 8 3 17 18 17 20 31 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 -5 -1 1 -1 1 -3 -2 -2 2 6 N/A SHEAR DIR 225 237 189 164 165 144 5 341 328 345 334 329 N/A SST (C) 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.2 27.8 27.3 27.0 26.3 25.4 21.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 153 156 162 164 155 134 128 125 118 110 87 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 134 138 143 143 134 115 109 107 101 94 77 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -51.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 10 10 8 12 7 10 6 7 4 N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 68 70 69 71 63 54 48 47 40 41 34 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 5 5 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -36 -52 -26 -8 -3 -26 -57 -63 -62 -48 19 N/A 200 MB DIV 44 25 18 21 19 20 0 -3 14 -1 -5 5 N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 3 1 2 1 4 4 0 0 17 10 N/A LAND (KM) 297 322 282 224 152 -21 -96 -66 -81 -37 164 237 N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 14 N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 49 48 37 25 14 10 10 5 4 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 16. 14. 8. 7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962011 INVEST 07/08/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962011 INVEST 07/08/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962011 INVEST 07/08/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)