* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032011 07/08/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 44 50 54 60 60 57 49 39 32 25 19 V (KT) LAND 35 40 44 50 54 60 60 57 49 39 32 25 19 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 43 46 49 49 46 41 35 30 26 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 12 13 9 11 10 8 9 8 5 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 0 -3 -2 1 -2 0 -1 0 0 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 86 89 112 109 83 97 94 96 106 148 171 142 156 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.2 26.3 25.1 24.1 23.3 22.8 22.1 21.2 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 157 153 146 126 112 102 94 90 82 73 65 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -51.5 -52.3 -51.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 7 7 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 78 76 72 71 73 72 70 66 61 53 49 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 12 12 13 12 11 10 8 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 22 35 34 33 37 41 42 32 23 16 10 7 -4 200 MB DIV 80 80 59 55 62 31 17 7 6 -14 -32 -46 -35 700-850 TADV -4 -1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -3 0 -1 0 3 2 LAND (KM) 262 275 304 309 337 460 501 464 446 516 606 693 852 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.5 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 103.7 104.7 105.7 106.6 107.4 109.2 110.3 111.3 112.3 113.9 115.8 117.5 119.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 8 5 5 7 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 38 39 36 30 21 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 452 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 7. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 15. 19. 26. 25. 22. 14. 4. -3. -10. -16. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032011 THREE 07/08/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032011 THREE 07/08/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##