* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CALVIN EP032011 07/08/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 58 64 68 72 69 61 52 42 33 24 16 V (KT) LAND 45 51 58 64 68 72 69 61 52 42 33 24 16 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 57 61 63 63 58 50 43 36 31 26 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 14 8 9 5 7 1 3 3 3 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -2 0 4 -1 8 1 1 -2 2 2 SHEAR DIR 92 109 113 98 98 86 90 79 111 188 103 117 63 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.3 27.5 26.5 25.2 24.2 23.6 23.0 22.2 21.2 20.4 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 147 139 128 114 103 97 91 83 73 64 63 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.2 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 72 70 71 68 69 67 68 62 57 49 42 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 12 13 13 14 13 11 9 7 6 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 32 34 36 45 49 50 44 37 20 18 8 -2 -16 200 MB DIV 64 37 66 68 41 26 19 10 -12 -30 -41 -37 -44 700-850 TADV -1 2 1 -1 -3 0 -1 -1 -2 0 0 3 1 LAND (KM) 316 336 359 408 464 524 495 503 576 634 693 791 876 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.6 20.1 20.8 21.4 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.4 107.3 108.2 109.1 110.5 111.6 112.8 114.3 115.8 117.5 119.1 120.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 9 8 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 38 31 23 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 421 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 19. 23. 28. 24. 16. 7. -3. -12. -21. -29. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032011 CALVIN 07/08/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032011 CALVIN 07/08/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##