* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CALVIN EP032011 07/08/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 76 79 79 74 68 57 42 30 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 71 76 79 79 74 68 57 42 30 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 72 77 78 77 70 61 52 42 34 28 22 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 9 5 7 9 4 7 12 13 11 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 0 1 0 7 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 99 91 92 86 74 110 94 136 155 143 139 122 117 SST (C) 27.9 27.3 26.6 26.1 25.7 24.9 24.0 23.1 22.4 21.7 21.1 20.8 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 137 129 124 119 111 101 91 83 76 70 68 68 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 67 65 63 65 63 65 60 58 52 47 44 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 11 11 9 7 6 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 30 44 44 46 53 44 44 24 18 10 3 0 -9 200 MB DIV 53 60 34 15 17 4 -9 -7 -26 -30 -29 -33 -22 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 0 3 2 5 LAND (KM) 475 541 614 660 644 652 683 723 736 778 861 947 1061 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.8 18.5 19.1 19.5 19.8 19.9 20.1 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 109.1 110.1 110.9 111.6 113.1 114.6 115.7 116.6 117.6 118.8 120.0 121.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 8 8 7 5 5 5 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 418 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -11. -17. -22. -26. -31. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 14. 14. 9. 3. -8. -23. -35. -45. -53. -62. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032011 CALVIN 07/08/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032011 CALVIN 07/08/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##