* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CALVIN EP032011 07/09/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 77 77 75 66 57 45 33 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 74 77 77 75 66 57 45 33 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 75 77 76 73 64 54 46 39 33 28 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 11 10 15 15 7 4 3 6 7 8 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 1 -2 0 1 0 0 0 1 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 86 96 102 95 91 91 110 91 112 123 128 131 124 SST (C) 27.3 26.7 26.2 25.7 25.3 24.7 23.9 23.1 22.1 21.7 21.7 21.4 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 130 125 120 115 108 100 92 81 74 74 71 69 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -51.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 64 63 64 61 64 59 52 46 44 40 39 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 15 14 12 11 8 6 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 45 46 50 59 53 42 33 17 23 9 -7 -3 -8 200 MB DIV 55 52 25 26 13 -14 -19 -29 -35 -19 -27 -24 -20 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 0 -2 -1 -2 0 0 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 533 597 662 657 658 666 691 743 797 808 778 769 747 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.4 19.7 19.8 20.1 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.9 110.8 111.7 112.6 113.7 114.7 115.9 117.4 117.9 117.6 117.8 117.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 5 6 7 5 1 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -11. -17. -23. -29. -33. -37. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -8. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 7. 5. -4. -13. -25. -37. -48. -57. -64. -70. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032011 CALVIN 07/09/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032011 CALVIN 07/09/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##