* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CALVIN EP032011 07/10/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 27 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 30 27 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 29 25 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 12 9 8 11 13 9 4 5 5 4 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 3 1 0 0 2 -3 0 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 91 100 94 91 104 116 117 143 102 104 131 82 N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.0 24.7 24.2 23.7 22.7 21.7 20.9 20.7 20.4 20.3 20.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 112 109 104 99 88 77 69 67 64 63 65 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 63 61 56 51 45 40 32 27 23 23 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 13 12 9 7 5 4 4 3 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 57 53 60 44 31 28 11 -4 3 -12 8 N/A 200 MB DIV -2 0 -4 -3 -5 -42 -30 -31 -28 -22 -28 -21 N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 0 1 2 2 0 -1 N/A LAND (KM) 642 649 666 700 744 800 845 928 1038 1107 1178 1338 N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.4 20.9 21.4 21.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.2 113.0 113.7 114.6 115.4 116.9 118.2 119.7 121.3 122.9 124.3 126.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -12. -13. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -6. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -8. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -12. -15. -25. -36. -46. -54. -59. -64. -65. -65. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032011 CALVIN 07/10/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032011 CALVIN 07/10/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##