* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902011 07/11/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 18 18 22 25 31 40 44 53 57 64 56 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 0 0 1 0 1 -1 -4 -9 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 269 260 251 242 237 241 252 247 247 243 250 254 262 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 135 135 135 134 133 132 133 135 137 139 141 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.9 -55.0 -54.8 -54.9 -54.7 -55.0 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 55 53 57 56 53 52 46 41 41 40 41 37 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 0 0 -6 -13 -16 -26 -29 -25 -22 0 -13 0 200 MB DIV -25 -6 4 15 20 1 47 77 98 126 161 156 182 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 2 1 -1 -2 -7 -9 -10 -11 -10 -13 LAND (KM) 1539 1543 1536 1536 1540 1560 1622 1699 1799 1911 2025 2132 2255 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.7 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.8 12.6 13.3 14.0 14.5 15.1 15.8 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 166.0 166.6 167.2 167.9 168.5 169.9 171.5 173.0 174.6 176.1 177.6 179.0 180.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 45 43 41 43 45 46 46 43 53 56 60 67 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 23. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -11. -18. -24. -29. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -19. -22. -24. -26. -26. -26. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -15. -22. -29. -35. -39. -42. -47. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902011 INVEST 07/11/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902011 INVEST 07/11/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##