* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902011 07/12/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 21 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 21 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 21 24 29 38 40 48 56 59 53 58 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 0 0 1 2 1 -4 -6 -1 -2 4 SHEAR DIR 265 248 238 233 231 244 244 236 245 243 243 253 273 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 135 134 134 133 132 132 134 137 139 141 141 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.9 -55.1 -55.0 -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 -54.9 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 50 51 51 47 45 44 39 40 38 38 36 37 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -3 -7 -12 -15 -13 -22 -26 -21 -14 -5 -5 1 200 MB DIV -7 2 18 23 20 29 60 91 123 127 188 248 172 700-850 TADV 2 2 3 3 2 -1 -4 -9 -10 -13 -12 -8 -7 LAND (KM) 1524 1517 1515 1517 1524 1566 1649 1747 1853 1972 2098 2222 2347 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.5 10.9 11.4 11.8 12.6 13.4 14.1 14.7 15.2 15.9 16.6 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 166.8 167.5 168.1 168.8 169.4 170.8 172.5 174.1 175.6 177.1 178.7 180.2 181.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 41 42 44 44 44 43 42 49 53 57 65 67 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -14. -22. -29. -33. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -22. -24. -24. -24. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -5. -10. -17. -24. -30. -34. -38. -41. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902011 INVEST 07/12/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902011 INVEST 07/12/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##