* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972011 07/13/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 36 42 48 60 69 77 86 91 93 92 88 V (KT) LAND 25 30 28 28 27 27 27 27 34 39 41 40 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 33 43 53 60 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 6 9 11 12 12 15 8 8 5 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -1 0 1 2 1 0 1 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 36 33 48 25 48 39 58 41 65 48 129 139 152 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.3 29.7 29.6 27.6 25.5 24.9 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 139 142 145 149 156 163 162 132 110 105 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 127 128 129 132 136 144 151 152 123 104 100 100 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 -52.7 -53.1 -52.4 -53.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 12 10 9 12 9 11 6 6 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 72 71 70 70 72 68 68 69 70 65 65 57 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 38 40 62 65 77 110 112 102 86 58 48 52 200 MB DIV 45 46 44 52 42 63 37 37 30 23 -9 -18 -16 700-850 TADV -8 -3 0 -7 -3 -3 2 0 5 0 1 4 4 LAND (KM) 99 28 -41 -113 -183 -328 -237 -107 86 296 527 637 837 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.1 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.7 20.4 20.0 19.3 18.7 18.1 17.8 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 95.3 96.3 97.3 98.2 99.0 100.7 102.4 104.1 105.9 107.9 110.1 112.8 115.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 10 10 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 18 7 32 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 385 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 28. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 35. 44. 52. 61. 66. 68. 67. 63. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972011 INVEST 07/13/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972011 INVEST 07/13/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972011 INVEST 07/13/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)