* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 07/16/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 25 27 30 33 34 35 37 36 37 35 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 25 27 26 26 30 32 34 33 34 32 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 22 25 30 33 36 38 40 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 19 12 9 12 12 10 18 14 20 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 2 1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 287 298 326 337 336 4 85 84 86 90 97 83 92 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.5 29.0 29.5 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 126 128 129 131 134 142 150 158 163 161 160 160 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 105 107 109 113 120 128 134 138 135 134 133 134 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 7 7 9 9 11 11 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 56 54 52 59 58 55 55 46 47 44 46 47 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 2 3 4 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -28 -30 -22 -13 -32 -26 -45 -37 -58 -71 -87 -95 200 MB DIV -10 11 -3 -5 14 -15 -8 -8 -19 -8 -19 6 -10 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -2 -2 -1 -3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 205 178 150 111 68 -63 -14 117 217 299 312 329 279 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.5 28.0 27.4 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 79.1 79.4 79.6 80.0 80.3 81.4 82.6 83.9 84.9 85.7 86.3 86.8 87.3 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 23 9 5 11 2 22 33 36 36 52 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 17. 16. 17. 15. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 07/16/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982011 INVEST 07/16/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 07/16/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)