* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942011 07/16/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 28 32 37 38 41 42 40 39 39 38 V (KT) LAND 20 24 27 30 33 39 40 43 43 42 41 36 30 V (KT) LGE mod 20 24 24 25 26 27 27 26 25 24 25 24 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 22 17 15 18 25 20 22 21 16 8 16 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 2 3 2 0 3 1 0 -2 7 0 0 SHEAR DIR 26 35 46 16 14 10 13 9 8 2 300 296 273 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.8 27.6 28.2 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 150 149 148 147 142 141 148 156 159 160 163 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -53.6 -53.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.3 -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 7 5 5 5 6 6 8 10 10 700-500 MB RH 82 83 83 82 81 81 80 80 81 80 77 74 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 11 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 63 65 55 50 56 25 16 4 0 16 50 56 200 MB DIV 90 103 98 120 154 152 143 177 133 94 127 66 103 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -16 -17 -16 -10 6 6 LAND (KM) -24 14 90 199 309 450 501 500 422 248 109 -22 -127 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.1 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.4 9.6 10.4 11.9 13.8 16.0 18.2 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 85.1 85.9 86.7 87.7 88.7 90.6 92.4 94.3 96.3 98.4 100.5 102.3 103.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 10 10 9 10 11 13 14 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 29 19 22 15 11 4 3 5 20 24 42 48 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 32. 36. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -4. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 5. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 17. 18. 21. 22. 20. 19. 19. 18. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942011 INVEST 07/16/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942011 INVEST 07/16/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##