* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 07/17/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 26 30 34 37 40 43 44 45 45 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 26 26 26 30 33 36 37 38 38 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 23 25 29 33 37 41 44 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 13 9 10 9 6 7 13 13 13 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 2 1 0 1 5 2 2 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 289 309 324 326 304 15 105 101 132 106 96 73 73 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 130 133 136 145 149 151 150 151 152 152 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 105 108 111 114 123 125 127 124 124 124 125 126 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 7 8 8 10 9 11 11 13 12 14 700-500 MB RH 54 56 59 60 58 57 52 49 47 46 43 43 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -32 -24 -16 -19 -24 -27 -38 -34 -47 -63 -67 -67 200 MB DIV 15 -12 -10 3 -6 -14 -12 -12 -17 -14 -16 8 -15 700-850 TADV -7 -4 -4 -3 -6 -3 -3 0 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 196 165 134 93 58 -56 -63 19 45 62 62 77 101 LAT (DEG N) 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.7 27.3 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 78.8 79.1 79.3 79.7 80.0 81.0 81.9 82.7 83.0 83.2 83.2 83.3 83.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 4 5 5 4 3 1 0 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 25 27 29 23 2 4 10 6 9 12 12 17 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):150/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 441 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 23. 24. 25. 25. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 07/17/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982011 INVEST 07/17/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 07/17/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)