* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942011 07/17/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 28 32 36 44 46 51 48 45 40 41 40 V (KT) LAND 20 24 28 32 36 44 46 51 48 45 40 41 40 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 24 24 24 24 25 27 30 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 18 20 21 20 20 14 13 13 6 12 15 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 1 0 3 3 7 6 3 4 13 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 32 41 25 15 1 355 355 355 355 10 323 291 314 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.0 28.5 29.0 29.2 29.4 30.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 150 150 149 148 145 151 156 159 160 166 154 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.3 -54.4 -53.8 -53.3 -53.9 -52.2 -53.0 -51.9 -52.4 -51.0 -51.6 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 5 6 4 7 7 11 8 10 700-500 MB RH 84 82 80 79 80 81 81 82 84 80 77 74 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 13 11 12 8 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 71 61 55 58 56 44 33 31 39 56 71 68 200 MB DIV 92 94 109 146 153 152 155 132 121 119 114 82 59 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -7 -5 -11 -21 -28 -12 -7 LAND (KM) 9 87 175 264 315 381 386 391 231 144 59 17 108 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.4 11.1 12.2 13.9 15.7 17.5 19.3 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 85.9 86.7 87.5 88.5 89.4 91.3 93.4 95.8 98.1 100.6 103.0 105.1 106.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 10 12 14 14 15 14 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 22 18 13 6 4 2 25 17 39 43 27 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 29. 34. 37. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 3. 4. -1. -4. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 24. 26. 31. 28. 25. 20. 21. 20. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942011 INVEST 07/17/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942011 INVEST 07/17/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##