* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942011 07/17/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 31 33 43 50 54 58 55 56 57 51 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 31 33 43 50 54 58 55 46 34 33 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 23 23 23 24 26 25 26 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 18 17 17 16 16 10 4 8 4 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 0 1 6 4 7 11 3 -1 -3 3 SHEAR DIR 28 24 31 19 11 358 14 358 43 186 13 342 307 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 27.8 28.1 28.7 29.1 29.2 29.8 29.7 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 149 149 143 147 153 157 158 163 161 159 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.1 -53.4 -53.8 -54.2 -52.4 -53.1 -51.6 -51.7 -50.8 -51.5 -50.8 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 6 5 6 4 7 6 10 7 10 7 700-500 MB RH 81 79 79 78 77 78 83 81 81 77 73 77 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 12 11 14 16 15 14 12 13 13 9 850 MB ENV VOR 52 47 48 52 40 30 23 10 12 42 45 56 58 200 MB DIV 73 85 94 132 113 156 134 168 156 114 75 99 55 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -9 -11 -14 -17 -1 0 -2 1 LAND (KM) 93 199 308 367 409 435 461 315 212 135 -15 -82 48 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 10.5 11.6 13.1 14.9 16.7 18.7 20.2 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 86.7 87.7 88.7 89.8 90.8 93.1 95.5 97.9 100.3 102.3 103.6 104.6 105.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 14 12 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 15 12 4 5 1 19 9 39 41 6 7 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 33. 37. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 6. 9. 8. 8. 4. 6. 6. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 13. 23. 30. 34. 38. 35. 36. 37. 31. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942011 INVEST 07/17/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942011 INVEST 07/17/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##