* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 07/17/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 39 43 46 49 50 50 50 47 44 40 37 V (KT) LAND 30 35 39 43 46 49 50 50 50 47 44 40 37 V (KT) LGE mod 30 34 38 41 44 48 51 53 55 55 53 52 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 14 8 5 6 17 18 26 20 25 24 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 2 2 1 1 -1 0 2 3 2 4 SHEAR DIR 299 298 331 1 42 65 79 67 71 62 68 61 78 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 131 131 131 132 130 128 126 125 123 122 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 108 109 109 108 109 108 108 106 104 103 102 102 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 8 9 9 10 10 12 11 13 13 15 700-500 MB RH 55 58 55 53 51 45 44 43 45 45 44 41 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -11 -12 -10 -13 -32 -37 -21 -9 -34 -47 -69 -71 200 MB DIV 18 13 9 -5 -1 -17 -10 -17 3 -18 4 -1 -4 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 1 3 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 6 LAND (KM) 210 186 162 143 124 115 136 207 293 391 454 538 544 LAT (DEG N) 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.7 28.8 29.2 29.6 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 78.2 78.4 78.6 78.8 79.0 79.1 79.0 78.4 77.6 76.6 76.0 75.2 74.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 26 22 19 27 36 36 34 28 20 13 11 9 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 441 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 18. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 9. 7. 5. 2. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 20. 20. 20. 17. 14. 10. 7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 07/17/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982011 INVEST 07/17/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 07/17/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)