* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942011 07/17/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 37 42 49 55 61 68 66 62 64 61 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 37 42 49 55 61 68 66 62 64 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 35 36 37 40 45 50 56 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 22 15 16 11 14 7 7 8 5 6 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 3 3 6 10 5 9 0 5 6 0 0 SHEAR DIR 44 40 30 15 2 356 41 63 104 149 141 349 347 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.6 29.0 29.0 29.5 30.1 29.5 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 150 147 147 152 156 156 160 166 159 153 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.4 -54.0 -54.3 -53.4 -53.2 -52.6 -52.4 -51.4 -51.4 -50.8 -51.1 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 7 6 6 7 8 9 10 7 8 700-500 MB RH 79 79 78 78 76 76 80 80 77 72 70 74 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 12 11 13 14 13 12 15 13 11 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 44 48 51 37 31 26 15 11 11 44 51 66 49 200 MB DIV 74 93 114 103 111 113 118 124 151 82 106 84 14 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -6 -7 -14 -5 -1 -5 2 3 LAND (KM) 263 337 354 374 385 420 342 247 197 95 29 14 108 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.4 10.6 11.4 12.7 14.2 15.7 17.4 19.0 20.3 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 88.3 89.2 90.0 91.1 92.1 94.5 97.0 99.5 101.8 103.5 104.9 105.8 106.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 11 11 13 14 14 13 11 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 16 10 4 4 2 15 29 38 21 46 56 25 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 31. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 4. 8. 6. 2. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 17. 24. 30. 36. 43. 41. 37. 39. 36. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942011 INVEST 07/17/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942011 INVEST 07/17/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##