* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL022011 07/18/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 46 48 47 46 43 42 39 32 25 17 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 46 48 47 46 43 42 39 32 25 17 V (KT) LGE mod 35 41 45 48 50 52 51 49 47 46 45 43 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 11 8 10 25 27 27 21 23 29 26 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 0 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 277 321 360 51 55 44 37 357 350 41 68 57 62 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.3 26.3 25.6 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 128 126 125 125 127 125 122 119 119 111 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 108 108 106 106 107 107 106 105 106 105 96 94 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 9 7 10 9 11 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 58 56 54 53 50 42 47 47 43 38 35 40 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 6 7 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -9 -3 -6 -18 -38 -7 -23 -44 -75 -86 -44 -50 200 MB DIV 14 -2 -6 4 -11 -20 -11 -20 -16 -35 -16 10 -1 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 2 1 2 2 5 7 5 7 12 1 LAND (KM) 205 232 260 293 323 405 360 368 497 701 881 900 1003 LAT (DEG N) 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.8 29.8 31.4 32.1 32.3 33.2 35.2 36.1 36.3 LONG(DEG W) 78.1 77.9 77.7 77.5 77.3 76.7 75.7 74.2 72.0 68.8 64.6 61.2 58.4 STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 3 4 5 7 8 8 12 17 17 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 18 23 24 20 17 13 14 14 4 1 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):150/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 13. 12. 11. 8. 7. 4. -3. -10. -18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022011 BRET 07/18/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022011 BRET 07/18/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022011 BRET 07/18/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)