* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942011 07/18/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 54 61 66 64 66 61 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 54 61 66 64 66 61 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 28 29 30 33 36 38 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 17 15 11 16 11 10 13 10 11 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 5 6 10 5 9 7 5 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 37 31 29 19 22 12 24 56 58 77 20 1 353 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.3 28.0 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.0 27.6 25.9 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 148 145 146 150 153 155 155 140 121 111 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -53.6 -52.8 -53.2 -52.0 -52.5 -51.2 -51.2 -50.4 -51.0 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 7 7 4 6 6 8 7 7 5 5 700-500 MB RH 80 80 77 74 77 80 80 82 80 75 74 69 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 13 13 13 17 18 19 18 17 20 19 21 850 MB ENV VOR 46 50 37 28 23 13 -2 -6 15 0 5 3 15 200 MB DIV 76 82 77 77 99 118 137 111 161 73 71 51 52 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -4 -3 -10 -12 -3 -4 -2 4 0 6 LAND (KM) 274 293 332 362 398 482 414 383 349 354 396 452 444 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 14 15 14 14 12 10 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 12 5 5 3 1 14 7 14 42 37 18 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 26. 31. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. 14. 14. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 22. 29. 36. 41. 39. 41. 36. 33. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942011 INVEST 07/18/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942011 INVEST 07/18/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##