* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL022011 07/18/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 54 55 53 51 47 43 41 33 26 20 V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 54 55 53 51 47 43 41 33 26 20 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 55 57 59 59 55 52 49 47 46 44 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 9 8 16 27 28 23 20 20 18 18 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 1 1 1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 312 328 359 39 37 49 28 12 8 62 62 56 44 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.5 26.5 26.2 25.7 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 128 126 124 125 124 120 120 118 113 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 111 111 110 108 106 107 107 104 105 103 98 95 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 56 53 52 51 48 47 49 52 47 45 42 44 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -6 -8 -18 -29 -35 -11 -26 -61 -79 -104 -101 -68 200 MB DIV 4 -5 9 -1 -18 -19 -12 17 -42 -9 3 2 13 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 2 4 1 3 8 3 12 5 20 5 LAND (KM) 208 234 262 303 347 456 494 515 626 838 996 1002 1038 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.3 27.5 28.1 28.6 29.7 30.6 31.5 32.5 33.5 34.5 35.5 36.5 LONG(DEG W) 78.0 77.8 77.5 77.3 77.0 76.1 74.6 72.6 70.1 67.1 63.6 60.1 56.7 STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 5 6 6 7 9 10 13 14 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 4 13 24 18 15 11 10 9 2 2 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 8. 6. 2. -2. -4. -12. -19. -25. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022011 BRET 07/18/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022011 BRET 07/18/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022011 BRET 07/18/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)