* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942011 07/18/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 39 43 50 60 68 73 71 71 69 60 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 39 43 50 60 68 73 71 71 69 60 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 35 36 36 39 43 48 50 49 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 19 13 14 11 9 11 5 6 8 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 7 6 4 5 2 3 2 3 3 1 SHEAR DIR 25 15 19 19 360 15 50 99 85 169 360 32 23 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.0 27.8 27.8 28.3 28.8 28.9 29.6 28.6 25.9 24.3 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 145 143 144 149 154 155 162 151 122 105 96 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -53.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.1 -51.5 -51.4 -50.3 -50.4 -50.1 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 5 5 7 9 9 8 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 80 80 74 79 76 80 81 75 73 73 69 73 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 15 17 18 20 21 22 21 23 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR 38 27 16 13 6 1 7 9 32 18 23 22 28 200 MB DIV 81 59 90 100 112 110 112 144 75 97 43 34 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -4 -6 -4 -9 -16 -2 -1 11 3 3 LAND (KM) 364 401 427 445 490 417 334 298 246 274 375 319 340 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.7 11.0 12.1 13.6 15.1 16.7 18.1 19.3 20.1 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 90.0 91.2 92.4 93.7 95.0 97.5 100.1 102.6 105.0 107.2 109.1 110.7 112.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 14 14 15 14 13 12 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 1 3 7 11 15 24 39 15 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 25. 28. 29. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 14. 13. 16. 18. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 13. 20. 30. 38. 43. 41. 41. 39. 30. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942011 INVEST 07/18/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942011 INVEST 07/18/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##