* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL022011 07/18/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 52 52 50 47 44 40 36 28 23 17 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 52 52 50 47 44 40 36 28 23 17 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 52 53 54 53 51 48 46 45 43 42 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 10 18 22 22 22 22 18 23 20 15 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 1 2 2 1 -2 1 0 -2 2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 326 16 39 38 38 51 13 353 29 90 97 101 358 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.4 26.5 26.6 25.3 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 136 134 132 130 128 124 118 120 122 111 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 115 115 114 112 110 109 106 101 103 105 99 98 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 10 9 10 9 10 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 54 52 51 47 44 48 50 48 43 42 42 44 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 9 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -5 -18 -26 -35 -15 -15 -41 -63 -75 -41 -22 1 200 MB DIV 3 22 8 -28 -27 -8 -24 -12 -51 -10 -3 -4 21 700-850 TADV 3 5 2 6 4 1 3 9 4 14 6 11 15 LAND (KM) 260 288 319 369 408 469 444 498 603 760 781 769 835 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.7 29.3 30.3 31.3 32.1 33.1 34.3 35.9 37.4 38.8 LONG(DEG W) 77.5 77.3 77.1 76.8 76.5 75.6 74.2 72.2 70.0 67.7 65.3 61.2 55.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 7 6 7 9 10 11 12 15 20 22 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 16 14 12 10 12 5 2 4 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 7. 6. 2. -1. -5. -9. -17. -22. -28. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022011 BRET 07/18/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022011 BRET 07/18/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022011 BRET 07/18/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)