* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042011 07/18/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 53 61 70 72 73 73 71 64 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 43 53 61 70 72 73 73 71 64 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 36 37 39 43 49 54 57 57 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 16 14 15 4 6 3 8 8 8 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 0 6 0 4 6 10 6 2 4 3 3 SHEAR DIR 11 8 10 356 355 17 107 7 87 342 10 331 354 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.8 29.4 27.9 26.3 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 150 151 151 155 157 160 163 158 142 126 114 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.0 -52.1 -51.1 -50.9 -50.5 -51.1 -50.3 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 6 5 6 7 9 7 8 6 7 4 700-500 MB RH 78 76 80 76 79 81 77 76 75 74 70 68 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 15 17 18 20 20 21 19 20 21 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 28 16 13 7 0 -2 9 13 12 22 1 12 8 200 MB DIV 44 66 83 104 118 142 94 94 91 82 25 27 -9 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -5 -6 -8 -3 3 0 -4 4 5 2 1 LAND (KM) 357 383 417 464 489 436 383 330 307 313 401 455 392 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 12 10 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 2 7 8 7 14 40 38 26 11 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 26. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 10. 11. 9. 10. 12. 15. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 23. 31. 40. 42. 43. 43. 41. 34. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042011 FOUR 07/18/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042011 FOUR 07/18/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##